房价上涨如何影响了工业产出

为探究房价上涨对工业生产的作用机制,首先基于理论视角对房价如何影响房地产投资、劳动力成本进而影响工业产出进行了论证,基于2003年~2017年全国时间序列数据,构建VAR模型实证检验了房价上涨对工业产出的影响机理。结果表明:房价上涨对工业产出具有"先促进,后抑制"的作用;房价上涨,一方面通过促进房地产投资增长抑制工业产出,另一方面通过提高工业企业劳动力成本抑制工业产出;短期内工业产出对房价的冲击响应较为灵敏且强烈,但长期来看房地产投资、劳动力成本的影响力会逐渐显现,且房地产投资最终成为了解释工业产出的主导因素。     

人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响

人工智能技术的快速发展正催生第四次工业革命,可能引发全球价值链深度重构和世界经贸格局重大变革。世界主要经济强国将发展人工智能技术作为争夺新一轮产业竞争优势的重要战略抓手。本文基于全球价值链视角研究人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响,我们发现人工智能技术变革可能推动国际贸易规模扩大,提升服务贸易份额,并促进国际贸易交易模式平台化、小宗化,可为中小企业创造更多参与国际贸易的机会。然而,人工智能技术变革也可能通过降低企业劳动力需求从而对我国等发展中国家的出口拉动型增长模式造成严重的潜在威胁。为应对人工智能技术变革,我国应部署并强化对人工智能产业发展的政策支持,加快培育制造业国际竞争新优势,大力推动先进制造业与现代生产性服务业深度融合发展,全面促进"中国制造"攀升全球价值链中高端。     

亚当·斯密农业发展思想研究

经济学之父亚当·斯密的传世名著《国富论》包含了非常丰富的经济发展思想,在《国富论》中,亚当·斯密重点对制造业、商业等城市经济进行阐述的同时,对农村、农业的发展也提出了自己的见解。虽然这些见解零散地分布在《国富论》的各篇章中,且距今已有二百余年,但是这些看似零碎的见解却包含着博大精深的农业发展思想,对现今我国的农村、农业发展仍然有着很强的指导和借鉴意义。     

农村劳动力流动对脱贫的影响文献综述

关于农村劳动力流动与贫困之间的关系一直是社会各界广泛关注的焦点。本研究通过对相关文献的梳理，针对劳动力外出务工的减贫效应，从贫困缓解论、贫困加剧论以及不确定论三方面进行概述，重点分析劳动力流动对我国农村贫困的影响及机制。结果表明，农村劳动力外出务工通过提高农户非农收入和改善整个社会的资源配置效率在收入维度上对农村贫困具有一定减缓作用，但同时，受农村劳动力过量流失的影响，外出务工在农户生活照料及社会保障等多维贫困上并未表现出显著作用，甚至存在一定负面影响。因此，应把握好劳动力外出之度，促进劳动力就近就业，同时加强对农村留守人员的社会保障，以实现多维脱贫、乡村繁荣。     

Employment Dynamics and Linkages in the Rural Economy: Insights from Senegal

Evidence on rural wage employment is thin and lacks nuance for different employment sources, insights on dynamic effects, and an understanding of the channels of effects. We assess conceptually and empirically the direct and indirect welfare effects of entry and continuation in different types of wage employment in rural Senegal. Using panel data, fixed effects and first-difference estimation, we show substantial positive welfare and linkage effects. We find that participation in wage employment increases per capita income by 143%, and reduces poverty, poverty gap and food insecurity by, respectively, 63%, 89% and 48%. While the direct effect on income is larger for non-agricultural and contractual wage employment, the indirect income effects through self-employment are more pronounced for agricultural and casual wage employment. Our results imply that job creation is important for rural development, that wage employment in agriculture can lead to considerable growth multiplier effects, and that synergies exist between large-scale and small-scale agriculture.     

Rural school access and the agricultural transformation

Improving children's access to primary and secondary education is a strategic goal for many global development agencies and government policymakers. Nevertheless, there is relatively little research examining how changes in rural school supply affect future labor markets. We leverage variation in the timing and location of secondary school construction in Southern Mexico to identify the effects of school supply on labor outcomes. We find that school construction increases expected education for school-aged children by about 4 years and raises the share of years working in the nonagricultural sector between the ages of 18–22 by 29.8 percentage points. The magnitude of the effects on share of years doing nonagricultural work is smaller for individuals from homes where an indigenous language is spoken. Our findings indicate that rural school construction in less-developed countries can accelerate the transformation from agricultural to nonagricultural economies, but there may be heterogeneous effects across socioeconomic groups and ethnicities.     

Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes

Do sovereign bond markets react systematically to microeconomic policy reforms? Some observers suggest that investors are very attentive to supply‐side policies such as those related to labor markets, corporate taxation, and product standards. They argue that, along with macroeconomic outcomes and broad financial market conditions, such reforms affect sovereign bond premiums, for developed as well as emerging economies. In contrast, we predict few systematic effects of supply‐side policy reforms on sovereign bond market outcomes. Our theory draws on a standard three‐equation model of the economy, widely accepted among economic and finance professionals. That model makes few clear predictions regarding the anticipated effects of microeconomic policy changes; as a result, we expect that such reforms will not generate systematic market reactions. Our analyses, based on daily data from 37 countries from 2004 to 2012, indeed reveal little evidence of a systematic bond market reaction to the 47 most significant reforms to corporate taxation and labor market regulation. These results call into question the notion that “bond market vigilantes” play a central role in compelling governments to enact specific microeconomic policy changes.     

市场竞争不完全与企业内部工资差距*——基于产品与劳动力市场融合视角的分析

理解工资差距的形成机制是在新时期破解发展不平衡不充分问题，进而实现共享发展的关键。本文从产品与劳动力市场竞争不完全相融合的视角，扩展了中国企业内部技能员工与非技能员工工资差距形成机制的研究，兼论消除竞争不完全的效率提高。基于中国企业数据并在统一的框架下构建市场竞争不完全的测算指标，本文发现：中国的市场化改革并不必然带来收入差距的扩大，不完全的市场化改革形成的产品与劳动力市场竞争不完全才是引发企业内部收入差距的重要原因。当存在市场竞争不完全时，企业会将产品市场势力扩展到劳动力市场，形成劳动力市场竞争不完全对工资差距的更大影响。这意味着单一的市场化改革不能有效缓解收入差距，只有产品与劳动力市场的同步改革才能达到最优的政策效果。中国的市场化改革可以在初次分配中通过发挥市场机制兼顾效率与公平。     

制度变迁下国有商业银行农村服务网络演化——以农业银行兰考县支行为例

经济转轨背景下农村的银行服务网络呈现出不同于城市的演化特征。从制度变迁角度建构分析框架,基于历史、调查与访谈数据,以农业银行兰考县支行为例,探讨我国商业银行农村服务网络演化动力机制。研究表明:国有商业银行农村服务网络经历了恢复成立后的快速扩张和密集的人工网点服务,市场化改革中农村业务收缩和大规模网点撤并,到新时期人工、自助、电子、代理等多元服务渠道扩张;农村银行服务网络演化是商业银行和制度环境相互作用的空间过程,普惠金融战略下我国特别强调金融服务的均等化和基础金融网点的全覆盖,商业银行不断借助新的伙伴关系开拓农村市场,其中合作代理日益发挥重要作用。不同地区、不同商业银行农村服务网络模式的差异,农村银行服务网络转型对农村社会经济发展、金融生态环境改善、农民金融素养提升的影响等还需进一步研究。     

旅游产业与农村可持续生计耦合的空间格局及驱动机制——以张家界为例

通过构建乡村旅游与农村可持续生计系统指标体系,运用变异系数和耦合协调度模型对2005—2018年张家界乡村旅游与农村可持续生计的耦合度和协调度进行测算,分析耦合协调度的空间格局,并运用地理探测器方法对其驱动机制进行分析。研究表明:①2005—2018年耦合协调度保持连续上升的趋势;②乡村旅游发展初期呈现东部高西部低的分布格局,中期呈现东南部滞后于西部的分布格局,但最终张家界整个区县达到优质协调;③耦合协调度空间分异的主要影响因素有人均GDP、旅游收入占GDP比重、农业机械化水平和人均财政收入等,且具有明显的时间异质性特征。